Will Idaho's presidential caucus affect the national stage?

• Idaho will hold two caucuses to decide their party's nominee for president
• The caucuses are the result of a mistake made by Idaho's legislature after passing a bill in 2023
• Scripps Deputy Political Director Joe St. George breaks down if Idaho's caucuses will affect the national stage

(The following is a transcription of the full broadcast story.)

After a seemingly unintentional error by the Idaho legislature, the presidential primary election was eliminated after the passing of House Bill 138, potentially making it harder for Idaho voters to choose who they want to run for president this year. We spoke with Scripps Political Director Joe St. George about how switching over to a caucus for this year's primary election will affect Idaho and the national stage, if at all.

Idaho voters cannot mail in their vote this year when choosing who they want to run for president. They won't be able to vote early either. Both Republicans and Democrats will be holding caucuses.

"For people in Idaho who are committed to the process, caucuses require some work. You have to show up at a certain time, at a certain place. Certainly, the Republican party in Idaho are doing their due diligence in making sure where people need to go," said Scripps Deputy Political Director Joe St. George.

Regardless, the Idaho GOP's March 2^nd caucus might have led to the same result as a presidential primary election anyway.

"From a political standpoint, caucuses, at least this year in 2024, have benefited former president Donald Trump. And the conventional thinking is that because a caucus takes time and commitment, your most passionate supporters are the ones who show up at caucus sites. Former President Trump won the Nevada caucus, he won the Iowa caucus. All indications are that he'll have a good night in Idaho," said St. George.

If you think voting in Idaho doesn't make a difference on the national stage, it certainly has the potential to, especially this year for the former president.

"So he's only going to have, by next week, around 100 delegates. You need over 1200 delegates, 1,215 delegates to actually clinch the nomination, so Idaho will be another step in that process for Mr. Trump. Obviously, Nikki Haley is still hoping to play spoiler. The earliest we've calculated that former president Trump could clinch the Republican nomination is sometime in mid-to-late March, well after Super Tuesday," said St. George.

However, on the Democratic side, the incumbent seems safe here in Idaho, and everywhere else.

"There is no real serious challenge to President Biden as the Democrat nominee. Yes, there's always chatter on social media because of his age and because of other issues that maybe he'll be dropping out, but no. Biden's sources tell me, 'look, this is a campaign that is focused on November,'" said St. George.

While Idaho's presidential caucuses will be held on March 2^nd for Republicans and May 23^rd for Democrats, it's important to remember that these differ from the Idaho 2024 primary election. That will be held on May 21^st as a standard election, with all 105 seats in the Idaho legislature up for election this year.