This article was originally published by Rachel Roberts and Chadd Cripe of the Idaho Statesman.
Idaho began Stage 1 on May 1, Stage 2 on May 16, Stage 3 on May 30 and Stage 4 on June 13, progressing based on data released by Little’s office. However, the state didn’t meet the criteria to exit Stage 4 as planned on June 26, July 10, July 24 or Aug. 7.
Now we’ll track how the state is doing as it tries Stage 4 (for the fifth time) for two weeks. We’ll update this post every evening with the latest information. The last day of Stage 4 is now scheduled for Aug. 21.
Central District Health moved Ada County back to Stage 3 in late June and instituted a countywide mask mandate on July 14 to address a recent rise in cases. CDH will determine when restrictions can be lifted in Ada County.
All data below is based on information provided through Aug. 16:
Central District Health has already moved Ada County back to Stage 3 to address an outbreak that has brought record COVID-19 case counts to the Boise area.
All data below is based on information provided through June 27:
1. COVID-19-LIKE ILLNESSES
Criteria: “Downward trend or low numbers of COVID-19-like illness patient visits as tracked by emergency departments within a 14-day period.”
Metric: “Downward trend over most recent reported 14-day period, OR less than 20 visits/day on average over same 14-day period.”
Current 14-day window: Aug. 3-16
Current average: 16.7 emergency visits per day
Previous 14-day average (July 20-Aug. 2): 19.5 emergency visits per day
Current status: GOOD. The current average is below the previous three 14-day windows and the 20-per-day threshold.
2. COVID-19-LIKE ADMISSIONS
Criteria: “Downward trend or very low numbers of patients with COVID-19-like illness admitted (to hospitals) from emergency departments within a 14-day period.”
Metric: “Downward trend over most recent reported 14-day period, OR less than 2 patients/day on average over same 14-day period.”
Current 14-day window: Aug. 3-16
Current average: 1.2 emergency admissions per day
Previous 14-day average (July 20-Aug. 2): 2.5 emergency admission per day (We previously reported 2.2 emergency admissions per day for this period, but IDHW updated data retroactively on its website, which caused the average to increase.)
Current status: GOOD. Idaho finished above the 2-per-day threshold during the previous 14-day window, but passed because of a downward trend. The fifth attempt at Stage 4 is below the average for the previous evaluation period.
3. NEW CORONAVIRUS CASES
Criteria: “Downward trend over most recent reported 14-day period, OR less than 20 patients per day on average reported statewide over the same 14-day period.” (Probable cases are included.)
OR
Criteria: “Downward trend of positive COVID-19 PCR tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (including flat or increasing volume of tests).”
Metrics: “Downward trend over most recent reported 14-day period, OR less than 20 patients per day on average reported statewide over the same 14-day period … OR downward trend (in positive percentage) over most recent reported 14-day period, OR less than 5% laboratory PCR positivity on average over same 14-day period.”
Current 14-day window: Aug. 5-18
Current numbers: 450 new cases per day, unknown percentage positive tests (see note below)
Previous 14-day numbers (July 22-Aug. 4): 463 new cases per day, 12.9% positive tests (see note below)
Current status: UNKNOWN. The Idaho Department of Health and Welfare uses data that isn’t public for these calculations — so it’s difficult to say where the state stands. IDHW reported downward trends in case counts and positive testing percentage in the last two gating criteria. For Aug. 2-8, the most recent week of data available, the positive rate was 11.4%. Idaho is currently averaging fewer cases per day than the previous 14-day window.
Notes: The testing percentage is based on the day a test was conducted. The information required for that calculation (tests and positive results on a given day) isn’t publicly available.
4. PATIENT CARE
Criteria: “Treat all patients without needing to use crisis standards of care.”
Measured by: “Governor’s Order for Crisis Standards of Care in place; reports from hospitals.”
Current status: GOOD. An order would be publicly announced if it were needed, Health and Welfare says.
5. HEALTH CARE SUPPLIES
Criteria: “Available ventilators, intensive care unit beds and personal protective equipment (PPE) to safely care for additional COVID-19 patients in hospitals.”
Metric: “At least 50 available (unused) ventilators, 50 ICU beds, and available 10-day supply of N95 masks, surgical masks, face shields, gowns and gloves.”
Current numbers: Idaho had 453 ventilators and 145 ICU beds available Aug. 16.
Current status: GOOD. Idaho’s coronavirus data dashboard added information about ICU beds and ventilators May 14. The charts show Idaho in good shape on those metrics. The PPE data still isn’t publicly available, but Idaho has been able to maintain that supply.
6. HEALTH CARE WORKERS
Criteria: “Robust COVID-19 testing program in place for at-risk health care workers.”
Metric: Health care workers diagnosed with COVID-19. “Downward trend over most recent reported 14-day period, OR less than 2 health care workers reported/day on average over same 14-day period.”
Current 14-day window: Aug. 5-18
Current average: Unknown
Previous 14-day window (July 22-Aug. 4): About 15 health care workers per day — a record — but the governor’s criteria document showed a downward trend.
Current status: SHAKY. IDHW uses data for infected health care workers that isn’t public, so this is another metric that is difficult to evaluate. The state added a record 364 health care worker infections to its website during the previous 14-day window but passed based on a downward trend.
7. COVID-19 DAILY ADMISSIONS
Criteria: “Hospital admissions of confirmed COVID-19 patients is less than 4 per day on average over 14-day period.”
Metric: Hospital reports from most recent 14-day period downloaded from HHS Protect.
Current 14-day window: Aug. 5-18
Current average: Unknown
Previous 14-day window (July 22-Aug. 4): About 7.9 admissions per day, according to the governor’s gating criteria
Current status: UNKNOWN. The state added this category to its gating criteria for the first time for the July 22-Aug. 4 evaluation period. The Idaho Department of Health and Welfare uses data that isn’t publicly available for this category, but the department said Aug. 6 that it planned to add the information to its website “soon.”
For the previous 14-day window, the governor’s gating criteria showed an average of about 7.9 emergency admissions per day. During that same time frame, 250 new hospitalizations were added to the state’s total, which averages to about 17.9 per day.
For the current 14-day window, 204 admissions have been added to the state’s total (17 per day). The number of people hospitalized statewide has risen from 199 on Aug. 4 to 206 on Aug. 12.
Statesman reporters Nicole Blanchard, Audrey Dutton and Michael Lycklama contributed.
