House Republicans are set to vote today on a spending bill aimed at keeping the government funded through September, despite opposition from Democrats who plan to block the legislation. This comes as concerns over the economy mount, following significant declines in the stock market.
In an interview with Fox Business correspondent Maria Bartiromo, President Donald Trump did not refrain from predicting a recession, a stance that unsettled Wall Street. Market analysts were hoping for a simple "no" response to the recession question, but instead heard uncertainty, contributing to recent market volatility.
JPMorgan Chase has since increased its estimates for the likelihood of a recession this year from 30% to 40%, attributing the shift to "extreme U.S. policies." Rising costs on Main Street, particularly record-high egg prices, are also raising alarms. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers remarked a couple of months ago, recession was really unlikely this year. Now it's probably getting close to 50-50, he said.
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Despite these economic jitters, optimism persists among some Republican lawmakers, who believe a forthcoming tax bill could stimulate growth and restore confidence on Wall Street.
In related developments, former President Trump is scheduled to address business leaders today regarding the economy, which presents an opportunity for him to clarify his remarks and potentially ease market concerns.
As lawmakers navigate economic vulnerabilities, they are also grappling with the looming threat of a government shutdown. While previous shutdowns have been averted since 2018, the political landscape has shifted with the new Trump administration, leading to increased uncertainty.
Democrats, despite currently holding limited power in Congress, are emphasizing their influence in shutdown negotiations. Some of the party's members are now poised to vote against funding measures, marking a significant shift in their typical stance of supporting government continuity.
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Today's vote in the House is critical, as the federal government is on track to run out of funding by Friday night. Although Republicans can technically pass the bill without Democratic support, they will need nearly unanimous backing from their party to succeed. If successful in the House, attention will then turn to the Senate, where bipartisan cooperation will be necessary to avert a shutdown later this week.
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